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Macroeconomic and financial stability: challenges for monetary policy
On September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and the world became aware that the financial crisis that had been unfolding for months was far more serious than expected. Months later, it became clear that the financial crisis of 2008-2009 was the worst economic downturn since the Great ...
The relationship between exchange rates and inflation targeting revisited
For decades, the exchange rate was at the center of macroeconomic policy debates in emerging markets. Many countries used the nominal exchange rate to bring down inflation, –others—mostly in Latin America—used the exchange rate to implicitly tax the export sector. Currency crises were common and usually ...
Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the eductive viewpoint
The quality of the coordination of expectations, a key issue for monetary policy, obtains from different, but interrelated, channels: both the credibility of the central bank intervention and the ability of decentralized agents to coordinate on a dynamical equilibrium matter. For both purposes, it is ...
Testing real business cycle models in an emerging economy
One of the most dynamic areas of macroeconomic research in recent decades is that of real business cycle (RBC) models. Since the seminal work by Kydland and Prescott (1982), a number of papers have tested the ability of neoclassical general equilibrium models to account for economic fluctuations. The ...
Global liquidity, spillovers to emerging markets and policy responses
The Book Series on "Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies" of the Central Bank of Chile publishes new research on central banking and economics in general, with special emphasis on issues and fields that are relevant to economic policies in developing economies. The volumes are published ...
The monetary transmission mechanism in Chile: a medium-sized macroeconometric model
The objective in building and specifying macroeconomic models is to reflect the main characteristics of an economy in a stylized way. This article describes a macroeconometric model for the Chilean economy. The aim of the model is to forecast the main macroeconomic variables, along with policy exercises ...
The macroeconomic conseguences of wage indexation revisited
Since the mid-1970s, the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation has been the subject of considerable research. Starting with an enthusiastic proposal for indexation by Friedman (1974) and two influential papers by Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977), the academic literature has examined the effects ...
Optimal inflation stabilization in a medium-scale macroeconomic model
What is the optimal monetary policy, and how can the central bank implement it? Both questions have been extensively studied, but always in the context of simple theoretical structures, which by design are limited in their ability to account for actual observed business cycle fluctuations. This article ...
Indexation, inflationary inertia, and the sacrifice coeficient
When inflation is chronic, firms develop indexation practices that automatically tie the growth of prices, wages, and other contracts to the performance of some comprehensive price index. The microeconomic advantages of indexation are evident and derive from the immunization of the relative price ...
Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
Comparamos el momento, la representatividad, los cuestionarios y la agregación de las respuestas de cinco encuestas de percepción económica chilenas en sus proyecciones macroeconómicas, observando las deficiencias de los índices agregados que combinan preguntas con diferente enfoque y perspectiva ...