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Un modelo de factores dinámicos de pequeña escala para el Imacec
En general, las proyecciones de la actividad económica y su trayectoria son parte de la base fundamental sobre la cual la mayoría de los bancos centrales toman las decisiones de política monetaria. En este contexto, el desarrollo de modelos...
External conditions and growth performance
A central dimension of globalization is the world trend toward larger trade and financial openness, observed in most industrial and developing economies. Openness increases the integration of world goods and capital markets, contributing to potential gains in growth and welfare. However, increased ...
Taxes and the labor market
One of the defining features of the financial crisis of 2008?09 has been its persistent impact on the U.S. labor market with the unemployment rate roughly doubling from early 2008 through mid2010. This has ignited an intense debate on the appropriate stimulus response of fiscal policy. The debate has ...
Economía chilena
El objetivo de la revista Economía Chilena es ayudar a la divulgación de resultados de investigación, preferentemente aquella realizada en el Banco Central de Chile sobre la economía chilena o temas de importancia para ella, con significativo contenido empírico y/o de relevancia para la conducción de ...
Forward guidance in hte yield curve: short rates versis bond supply
Since late 2008 when short-term interest rates reached their zero lower bound central banks have been conducting monetary policy through two primary instruments: quantitative easing (QE) in which they buy long-term government bonds and other long-term securities and so-called forward guidance in which ...
Non-ricardian aspects of fiscal policy in Chile
In this paper we examine the effects of government spending shocks in the Chilean economy. The study of the effects of such shocks in an emerging market economy is of special interest because of the potential presence of non-Ricardian households that is households that do not own any assets or have ...
Debt- and equity-led capital flow episodes
Our earlier work has helped to switch the focus of studies of extreme capital flow movements toward the use of data on gross inflows (mainly driven by foreigners) and outflows (mainly driven by domestics) rather than relying on net flows (the sum of the two) (Forbes and Warnock 2012). The old focus ...
Too poor to grow
Development theorists have long been intrigued by a variety of mechanisms capable of generating vicious cycles of poverty and stagnation—broadly referred to as poverty traps. These mechanisms highlight different ways in which poverty may deter growth and become self-perpetuating. Such situation may ...
Economía chilena
El objetivo de la revista Economía Chilena es ayudar a la divulgación de resultados de investigación, preferentemente aquella realizada en el Banco Central de Chile sobre la economía chilena o temas de importancia para ella, con significativo contenido empírico y/o de relevancia para la conducción de ...
Procyclicality of fiscal policy in emerging countries: the cycle is the trend
Economic research on fiscal policy has shown that while developed economies tend to run countercyclical fiscal policies Latin American countries have been characterized by procyclical policies. One of the explanations given to this phenomenon is that high external debt causes severe constraints on the ...