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The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Inflation globally
The fortunes of the Phillips curve have ebbed and flowed ever
since it was proposed by Phillips (1958). Although its origins are
primarily as an empirical regularity, there is now a vast literature
that provides more formal justification. In recent times, the Great
Moderation and the modern era ...
The transformation and performance of emerging market economies across the great divide of the global financial crisis
Before the Global Financial Crisis, a drive towards greater central-bank autonomy and transparency, as part of the achievement of greater central-bank credibility that had begun in the advanced economies (AE), spread to the emerging market economies...
The supply-side origins of U.S. inflation
In recent years, we have not seen much of a negative correlation
between inflation, the time series plotted in figure 1, and measures of
resource slack, based on real GDP plotted in figure 2. This flattening
of the Phillips curve in many countries across the world has startled
monetary policymakers. ...
The three E’s of central-bank communication with the public
Central banks used to ask, “Shall we communicate this?” Now, as a rule, they ask, “Why wouldn’t we communicate this?” This
first wave of the revolution in central-bank communication is giving rise to a second wave. The question increasingly is, “How should we communicate this in a way that engages a ...
Evolución e importancia del crédito de consumo en Chile
En la última década la deuda de consumo con casas comerciales e instituciones financieras ha crecido fuertemente, causando preocupación en autoridades y analistas. Las causas de esta preocupación, sin embargo, no están explícitas. En este articulo...
Fiscal inflation and cosmetic defaults in a small open economy
For a small open economy, maintaining a stable exchange rate and moderate levels of inflation is often a goal of primary importance. At the same time, the profession has recognized the tight link between fiscal and monetary policies in determining inflation dynamics. Thus, the goal of a stable exchange ...
Evaluación de la fragilidad del sistema bancario en un ambiente de estabilidad: Chile 1990-1998
La detección de fragilidad de las instituciones bancarias ha motivado a una amplia literatura con el propósito de entregar señales de alerta para una reacción temprana de las autoridades supervisaras. Este trabajo revisa esta literatura y explora...
Central banking with many voices: the communications arms race
The job of central bankers is to use the monetary powers granted to them to promote price stability, sustainable growth, and a stable financial system. They do this in an environment fraught with unavoidable uncertainties. But, in conducting policy...
The passthrough of large-cost shocks in an inflationary economy
This paper surveys and modestly extends the theory of menu-cost
models of the behavior of the aggregate price level after large-cost
shocks. It does so in the context of an economy with a high underlying
rate of inflation. It concentrates on the effect of large permanent and
unexpected increases ...