El artículo evalúa los pronósticos oficiales del gobierno respecto del desempeño de la economía y las cuentas públicas en un grupo grande de países. Su principal resultado es que los pronósticos oficiales sobre el presupuesto y sobre el PIB pecan —en promedio— de exceso de optimismo, y que el sesgo ...

In the early 90’s a literature emerged emphasizing the role of external factors in explaining business cycle fluctuations in emerging countries. In particular changes in the terms of trade and world interest rates are generally viewed as the main external factors affecting these economies. Additionally ...

Este documento examina las experiencias de crecimiento de 23 países de América Latina y El Caribe en cuatro subperíodos de análisis entre 1990 y 2013. En función de la disponibilidad de datos, se ha realizado tres tipos de ejercicio. El primero abarca 18 países de América Latina y cinco de El Caribe, ...

Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product ...

A component of agricultural policy in Chile is the use of price bands to stabilize domestic price movements in selected agricultural crops and processed agricultural commodities. In the 1990s, the use of price bands for wheat, fats and oils, and sugar resulted in the equivalent of roughly a 22 percent ...

Fear of floating has recently come to be seen as one of the central de facto characteristics of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, after first being identified by Calvo and Reinhart (2002). The interpretation of this phenomenon is still open to question. Does the optimal monetary regime for ...

¿Cuáles son las principales características de las bonanzas o booms crediticios y sus efectos sobre las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas? Este artículo responde esta pregunta aplicando un método que propusimos en un trabajo anterior para identificar y medir bonanzas crediticias con datos de 61 economías ...

For decades, the exchange rate was at the center of macroeconomic policy debates in emerging markets. Many countries used the nominal exchange rate to bring down inflation, –others—mostly in Latin America—used the exchange rate to implicitly tax the export sector. Currency crises were common and usually ...

The importance of economic growth cannot be overstated. Income growth is ssential for achieving economic, social, and even political development. Countries that grow strongly and for sustained periods of time are able to reduce their poverty levels significantly, strengthen their democratic and political ...

Se analizan los efectos de la Facilidad de Liquidez a Plazo (FLAP), ejecutado por el Banco Central de Chile en respuesta a la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Encontramos que el anuncio de esta política reduce significativamente los rendimientos nominales en el horizonte de política de dos años. Estos ...