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Predicción del empleo sectorial y total en base a indicadores de confianza empresarial
¿Qué capacidad predictiva tiene el índice mensual de confianza empresarial? En este trabajo evaluamos el IMCE como predictor de la variación en doce meses del empleo total y sectorial. Al concentrarnos únicamente en la relación predictiva que existe entre las variables de empleo y los indicadores IMCE, ...
Relación entre el dólar el precio del cobre y el ipsa en distintas escalas de tiempo: una aproximación a través de wavelet
En este estudio se analiza la relación de causalidad para diferentes plazos de tres variables relevantes de la economía Chilena: el tipo de cambio peso dólar el precio del cobre y el índice de precios selectivos de acciones IPSA. Para ello se realiza una descomposición mediante la transformada de ...
Distress dependence and financial stability
The proper estimation of distress dependence amongst the banks in a system is key to monitoring the stability of the banking system. Financial supervisors recognize the importance of assessing not only the risk of distress i.e. large losses and possible defaults by a specific bank but also the impact ...
The supply-side origins of U.S. inflation
In recent years, we have not seen much of a negative correlation
between inflation, the time series plotted in figure 1, and measures of
resource slack, based on real GDP plotted in figure 2. This flattening
of the Phillips curve in many countries across the world has startled
monetary policymakers. ...
Riding the roller coaster: fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean
In the last decade the prices of nonrenewable resources which constitute a critical source of fiscal revenue in many Latin American and Caribbean countries recorded sharp swings correlated with economic growth developments in the world and in the region. Similar episodes in the past led to boom and ...
Liquidity and foreing asset management challenges for Latin America countries
The Global Financial Crisis put to the fore the challenges of managing liquidity and foreign assets at times of heightened volatility. Earlier concerns of some observers regarding the costs of precautionary hoarding notwithstanding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) validated the buffer value of ...
Dinámica de tasas de interés de mercado en tiempos de turbulencia financiera
La importante baja de la tasa de política monetaria (TPM) durante el año 2009 ha compensado el alza de las tasas de colocación causada por la mayor incertidumbre nacional e internacional. Este artículo concluye lo anterior al examinar la evolución de las tasas de interés de colocación de consumo y ...
International aspects of the zero lower bound constraint
Large negative aggregate demand shocks can drive down an economy’s equilibrium real interest rate and if the central bank is committed to stabilizing inflation monetary policy may be hampered by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates –the economy may be in a 'liquidity trap.' The policy dilemma ...
Trade with asymmetric information
Events in financial markets before and during the crisis of late 2008 have stimulated renewed interest in modeling trade with asymmetric information. Robert Shimer’s contribution to this volume joins the literature focusing on trade in securities that are claims on mortgages where issuers of the ...
The effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging market economies’ sovereign and corporate bond markets
The global environment for emerging market economy (EME) bond markets has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have developed especially in EMEs with low inflation stronger institutions and well defined creditor rights (see Burger and Warnock 2003 2006 ...