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Targeting inflation in an economy with staggered price setting
After experiencing high and persistent inflation rates in the 1970s and early 1980s, most industrialized economies entered the new century with a sustained record of flow, stable inflation rates. Many commentators attribute the new environment to good luck, in the form of no major supply shocks (at ...
Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
Comparamos el momento, la representatividad, los cuestionarios y la agregación de las respuestas de cinco encuestas de percepción económica chilenas en sus proyecciones macroeconómicas, observando las deficiencias de los índices agregados que combinan preguntas con diferente enfoque y perspectiva ...
La brecha de producto en Chile: medición y evaluación
El presente trabajo estima la brecha del producto y del crecimiento del producto potencial para Chile durante 1986-2007 con tres diferentes metodologías: (i) función de producción, (ii) aproximación por el filtro de Kalman (univariado y multivariado) y (iii) VAR estructural. Las estimaciones de brecha ...
Microeconomic flexibility in Latin America
Latin American economies have begun to leave behind some of the most primitive sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. Policy concern is gradually shifting toward increasing microeconomic flexibility. This is a welcome trend since microeconomic flexibility, which facilitates the ongoing process of ...
Determinantes de la exposición cambiaria de las empresas Chilenas
Se examina el impacto de las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio sobre el valor de las empresas no financieras en Chile. Utilizando un conjunto de datos detallados sobre las actividades externas y el uso de derivados monetarios por parte de las empresas, se analizan los determinantes potenciales de la ...
Transmisión de shocks y acoplamiento con mercados accionarios externos: efectos asimétricos y quiebre estructural
Analizamos la transmisión de shocks desde los principales mercados bursátiles desarrollados —Tokio, Nueva York, París y Frankfurt— hacia el mercado de Santiago, controlando por el de Sao Paulo. Nuestra investigación se concentra en los episodios de 2007 y 2008, donde la transmisión pasó desde los ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Indexed units of account: theory and assessment of historical experience
An indexed unit of account, such as the Unidad de Fomento (UF) in Chile, is a money analogue that can be used to price items for sale or to specify Amounts to be repaid in the future. While it is in a sense a sort of money, it is not true money since it is not a medium of exchange and it has no physical ...
Asset bubbles and sudden stops in a small open economy
One of the most striking features of the world economy over the last twenty-five years has been the sharp decline in the real interest rate from approximately 4% in the early 1990s to -1.5% in 2013 (figure 1). During this period there have been two waves of large capital inflows into emerging economies ...
Credibility and inflation targeting in Chile
After a long history of high and volatile inflation, the Central Bank of Chile began implementing its monetary policy in the early 1990s by announcing yearly targets for inflation. This new framework was the first step toward a full-fledged inflation-targeting setup, although the Central Bank continued ...