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Goverment size misallocation and the resource curse
Structural transformation is a reallocation of labor across sectors. In this paper I investigate the impact of structural transformation in an open economy on sectoral and aggregate productivity with a particular focus on the role of government. While there are potentially many sources of structural ...
Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
Comparamos el momento, la representatividad, los cuestionarios y la agregación de las respuestas de cinco encuestas de percepción económica chilenas en sus proyecciones macroeconómicas, observando las deficiencias de los índices agregados que combinan preguntas con diferente enfoque y perspectiva ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
What drives the current account in commodity exporting countries?: the cases of Chile and New Zealand
As capital markets have become increasingly integrated, savings and investment within countries have tended to become less correlated, in what is known as the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) correlation, with the corollary that savings-investment gaps (that is, current accounts) have tended to become more ...
Valuation effects and external adjustment: a review
Ever since David Hume introduced his price-specie flow mechanism in 1752, the question of external adjustment has been a classic issue for international macroeconomists. In 1968 Robert Mundell asked “To what extent should surplus countries expand, to what extent should deficit countries contract?” ...
On current account surpluses and the correction of global imbalances
The United States has run an increasingly large current account deficit over the last few years. J. P. Morgan forecasts that in 2007 the deficit will reach almost one trillion dollars, or 7 percent of GDP. This unprecedented situation has generated concern among analysts and policymakers. Many argue ...
External conditions and growth performance
A central dimension of globalization is the world trend toward larger trade and financial openness, observed in most industrial and developing economies. Openness increases the integration of world goods and capital markets, contributing to potential gains in growth and welfare. However, increased ...
An anatomy of credit booms and their demise
Episodes in which credit to the private sector rises significantly above its long-run trend (that is 'credit booms') are often associated with periods of economic turbulence. Until recently however efforts at developing methodologies for identifying credit booms and characterizing the economic ...
Financial diversification, sudden stops, and sudden starts
The financial crises of the second half of the 1990s have led to renewed interest in the causes and consequences of international capital flows. Sudden stops, defined as large drops in net capital inflows, have received particular attention, given the collapses in output and investment commonly ...
Does inflation targeting increase output volatility?: an international comparison of policymakers' preferences and outcomes
Monetary policy regimes around the world changed dramatically over the decade of the 1990s. Central banks have become more transparent, more independent, more accountable, and (apparently) more successful. The biggest transformation has benn the move away from focusing on intermediate objectives, susch ...