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Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
Comparamos el momento, la representatividad, los cuestionarios y la agregación de las respuestas de cinco encuestas de percepción económica chilenas en sus proyecciones macroeconómicas, observando las deficiencias de los índices agregados que combinan preguntas con diferente enfoque y perspectiva ...
Economía chilena
El objetivo de la revista Economía Chilena es ayudar a la divulgación de resultados de investigación, preferentemente aquella realizada en el Banco Central de Chile sobre la economía chilena o temas de importancia para ella, con significativo contenido empírico y/o de relevancia para la conducción de ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
A decade of debt
Public debts in the advanced economies have surged in recent years to levels that have not been recorded since the end of World War II. Through 2010 the average public debt/GDP ratio for all the advanced economies has surpassed the pre-World War II peaks reached during the World War I and subsequently ...
Managing sudden stops
Sudden stops are when capital inflows dry up abruptly. The banker’s aphorism—'It’s not speed that kills but the sudden stop'— has been popularly invoked since at least the Mexican crisis in 1994. Awareness then rose with impetus from the Argentine crisis (1995) the Asian crisis (1997) the Russian ...
Economía chilena
El objetivo de la revista Economía Chilena es ayudar a la divulgación de resultados de investigación, preferentemente aquella realizada en el Banco Central de Chile sobre la economía chilena o temas de importancia para ella, con significativo contenido empírico y/o de relevancia para la conducción de ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
Valuation effects and external adjustment: a review
Ever since David Hume introduced his price-specie flow mechanism in 1752, the question of external adjustment has been a classic issue for international macroeconomists. In 1968 Robert Mundell asked “To what extent should surplus countries expand, to what extent should deficit countries contract?” ...
Current account and external financing
Are international capital markets a source of stable and reliable financing for emerging market economies, or a source of instability? Is the pattern of capital flows from poor to rich countries observed in the past decade sustainable? What is the optimal degree of capital account openness both for ...
Cross-border corporate control: openness and tax havens
Cross-border corporate control is a major facet of globalisation. In roughly one out of four listed controlled companies in 2012, control was exercised by a foreign entity or family/individual. Controlling—and passive—ownership stakes are often...