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Asset bubbles and sudden stops in a small open economy
One of the most striking features of the world economy over the last twenty-five years has been the sharp decline in the real interest rate from approximately 4% in the early 1990s to -1.5% in 2013 (figure 1). During this period there have been two waves of large capital inflows into emerging economies ...
U.S. monetary spillovers to Latin America: the role of long-term interest rates
The economic situation in emerging markets has deteriorated in recent years. Perhaps the single most important event especially for Latin America has been the end of the so called commodity supercycle which intensified with the collapse in oil prices in late 2014. But the trend of weaker currencies ...
Fiscal deficits debt and monetary policy in a liquidity trap
The dramatic policy response to the 2008-09 global economic crisis from many countries has revived some old debates about the use of fiscal and monetary policy in fighting recessions. The central dilemma for policy-makers in Japan North America and Europe has been to try to counter a large recession ...
Inflation targeting in financially stable economies: has it been flexible enough?
The international financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008- 09 called for a range of significant policy measures by central banks beyond aggressive interest rate cuts. Measures have ranged from improving international coordination to purchasing local private loan portfolios and direct intervention ...
Central banks going long
Long-term interest rates have for long played an ambiguous role in the operation of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 that created the Federal Reserve set the monetary policy objective to be: '... to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment stable prices and moderate long-term ...
The leverage cycle default and foreclosure
At least since the time of Irving Fisher economists as well as the general public have regarded the interest rate as the most important variable in the economy. But in times of crisis collateral rates (margins or leverage equivalently) are far more important. Despite the cries of newspapers to lower ...
Macro-prudential policy and the conduct of monetary policy
The 'Great Contraction' in global economic activity triggered by the financial crisis and the extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that public authorities had to undertake in order to put the economy back on track by putting public finances under heavy strains and leading to extremely low ...