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Policy evaluation and empirical growth research
This paper explores the implications of the vast body of studies of cross-country growth determinants for the evaluation of alternative policies. Empirical growth studies have experienced a remarkable flowering in the last fifteen years, and innumerable insights have unquestionably been uncovered ...
Fifteen years of new growth economics: what have we learned?
Paul Romer’s paper, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” is now fifteen years old. This pathbreaking contribution led to a resurgence in research on economic growth. The resulting literature has in had a number of important impacts. In particular, it shifted the research focus of macroeconomists. ...
Targeting inflation in an economy with staggered price setting
After experiencing high and persistent inflation rates in the 1970s and early 1980s, most industrialized economies entered the new century with a sustained record of flow, stable inflation rates. Many commentators attribute the new environment to good luck, in the form of no major supply shocks (at ...
Quantity and quality of economic growth
Most cross-country studies of economic growth, including my earlier research, focus on the determinants of narrow economic variables. The variables most often studied are the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the ratio of investment to GDP. In this study, my focus is on the ...
The sources of economic growth: an overview
The importance of economic growth cannot be overstated. Income growth is ssential for achieving economic, social, and even political development. Countries that grow strongly and for sustained periods of time are able to reduce their poverty levels significantly, strengthen their democratic and political ...
Trends, cycles, and convergence
Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product ...
Reviewing the evidence against absolute convergence
Few subjects in applied economic research have been studied as extensively as the convergence hypothesis advanced by Solow (1956) and documented by Baumol (1986). In simple terms, the hypothesis states that poor countries or regions tend to grow faster than rich ones. In its strongest version (known ...
It's not factor accumulation: stylized facts and growth models
The central problem in understanding economic development and growth is not, in fact, to understand the process by which an economy raises its savings rate and increases the rate of physical capital accumulation. Many development practitioners and researchers continue to target capital accumulation ...
Asset prices in Chile: facts and fads
Chile enjoyed an unprecedent period of rapid and sustained growth in the 1986-98 period. Although average growth exceeded 7.1 percent a year, significant cyclical fluctuations also marked the period, both across sectors and across time. Growth in the tradable sectors exceeded 6.7 percent annually from ...
Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes
Do better functioning financial intermediaries -financial intermediaries that are better at ameliorating information asymmetrics and facilitating transactions- exert a causal influence on economic growth? Providing evidence on causality has implications for policymakers and economists. For instance, ...