The social cost of carbon—what’s new and next?

Abstract

As described by Fridligstein and others, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen from 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to 419.3 ppm in 2023. While pre-industrial revolution growth in concentrations was largely due to land use changes and deforestation, the source of emissions rapidly shifted towards the combustion of fossil fuels, with a total of 490 +/- 25 gigatons of carbon being emitted between 1850 and 2023. Roughly 46 percent of cumulative emissions stemmed from coal, 35 percent from burning of oil, and 15 percent from burning of natural gas. In 1850, the United Kingdom was responsible for 62 percent of emissions, yet today China (31%), the United States (13%), India (8%), and the EU-27 countries (7%) are responsible for roughly 60 percent of total emissions. Unmitigated growth in the combustion of fossil fuel will continue to drive up atmospheric concentrations leading to increased atmospheric forcing, which will translate into changing weather patterns including, but not limited to, higher temperatures in summer and winter, changed precipitation patterns, storm intensities, and area burned by wildfires.