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Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa
Monetary policy in South Africa's emerging market economy, given capital account liberalization and severe constraints on fiscal policy, has the major responsability for curbing inflation and currency instability while trying to ensure sufficient growth for longer-term political stability and the ...
Causes and consequences of indexation: a review of the literature
Automatic price adjustment mechanisms, or indexation, have arisen in a variety of economies with distinct macroeconomic environments and in different moments in time. Examples include the labor market indexation implemented in various European countries in the postwar era, the indexation of financial ...
New frontiers for menetary policy in Chile
Inflation targeting can be broadly defined as a framework for the conduct of MONETARY POLICY in which the central bank guides its instruments in order to hold inflation near a preannounced target or to bring back to the target. Although understanding the framework is straightfoward, its practical ...
Policy evaluation and empirical growth research
This paper explores the implications of the vast body of studies of cross-country growth determinants for the evaluation of alternative policies. Empirical growth studies have experienced a remarkable flowering in the last fifteen years, and innumerable insights have unquestionably been uncovered ...
Stabilization, persistence, and inflationary convergence: a comparative analysis
The role of inflationary persistence has become a recurrent theme in discussions on stabilization programs (Fischer, 1986). This has particularly been the case in recent debates on the merits of exchange-rate-based stabilization plans. Some authors claim that anti-inflationary programs based on ...
The macroeconomic conseguences of wage indexation revisited
Since the mid-1970s, the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation has been the subject of considerable research. Starting with an enthusiastic proposal for indexation by Friedman (1974) and two influential papers by Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977), the academic literature has examined the effects ...
The effect of uncertainty on monetary policy: how good are the brakes?
In most industrial countries, official interest rate changes tend to be 'smooth'. That is, rates are adjusted relatively infrequently and is small steps. Yet the path of interest rates that emerges as optimal from macroeconomic models is, in general, considerably more volatile. So are the paths of ...
Optimal monetary policy rules when the current account matters
Policymarkers and the academic community have reached an increasing consensus during the last two decades: the primary objective of monetary policy should be to control inflation (see, for example, King, 1999). A less settled issue is the appropriate role of the central bank regarding other, secondary ...
A decadeof inflation targeting in Chile: developments, lessons, and challenges
In the twentieth century, Chile experienced most monetary and exchange rate regimes. Periods of fixed exchange rates usually ended in speculative attacks as a result of inconsistent policies or significant external shocks, generating serious real costs and larger exchange rate volatility.
Medición de la política monetaria y el traspaso (pass-through) en Chile
Primero, este trabajo presenta una revisión de los principales estudios con VAR monetarios en Chile y en el mundo para medir la política monetaria y el traspaso del tipo de cambio a precios (pass-through). Segundo, se estiman tres VAR estructurales con restricciones de corto plazo y un VEC con ...
Monetary policy rules and transmission mechanisms under inflation targeting in Israel
Disinflation in Israel has been a relatively slow process. It took more than a decade for the annual rate of inflation to fall from about 18 percent in the late 1980s to less than 4 percent in the late 1990s. For 2000 and 2001 the government has set an inflation target range of 3 to percent. Whether ...
Optimal monetary policy rules under inflation range targeting
Central banks resort to a variety of alternative arrangements in formulating, conducting, and communicating monetary policy. One increasingly popular type of arrangement is based on a target range for inflation. In this setup the conduct of monetary policy is oriented to keeping inflation withing ...
Fifteen years of new growth economics: what have we learned?
Paul Romer’s paper, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” is now fifteen years old. This pathbreaking contribution led to a resurgence in research on economic growth. The resulting literature has in had a number of important impacts. In particular, it shifted the research focus of macroeconomists. ...
Do depositors punish banks for bad behavior? market discipline, deposit insurance, and banking crises
Over the last two decades, both developed and developing countries have endured severe banking crises. The U.S. savings and loans (S&Ls) debacle in the 1980s, the chilean banking crisis in the 1980s, the Argentine and Mexsican crises in the mid-1980s and 1990s, as well as the recent financial turmoil ...
La época dorada del crecimiento en Chile: explicaciones y proyecciones
Desde mediados de la década de los ochenta, el crecimiento en Chile ha destacado por su alto nivel y por su persistencia. Este artículo trata de dar algunos indicios acerca de los factores del alto crecimiento económico de los últimos 15 años y analiza hasta qué punto éstos son sostenibles en el tiempo. ...
Targeting inflation in an economy with staggered price setting
After experiencing high and persistent inflation rates in the 1970s and early 1980s, most industrialized economies entered the new century with a sustained record of flow, stable inflation rates. Many commentators attribute the new environment to good luck, in the form of no major supply shocks (at ...
Inflation targeting in Brazil: shocks, backward-looking prices, and IMF conditionality
In mid-January 1990, Brazil abandoned its crawling exchange rate band. Surprisingly enough, the country's economic performance in the aftermath of this episode was much better than expected, given the performance of other emerging market economies after a move toward floating. Despite the large ...
Optimal management of indexed and nominal debt
In standard macroeconomics, fiscal policy involves choices about expenditures, taxes, and debt issue. The different kinds of public spending may be distinguished with respect to their interactions with private decisions. For example, some public activities influence private production and some interact ...
Capital inflows, credit booms, and macroeconomic vulnerability: the cross-country experience
The turbulence in financial markets is Southeast Asia in 1997-98 and the crisis in Mexico in 1994-95 have renewed interest among policymarkers in the issues of capital account liberalization and financial sector reform. In all the East Asian cases and in Mexico, as well as in many other earlier episodes ...
Estimación de brecha y tendencia para la economía Chilena
Los componentes de tendencia y de brecha del PIB constituyen piezas claves para la evaluación y proyección de modelos estándares de política monetaria. Sin embargo, la medición de estas variables está plagada de dificultades. En este trabajo se proponen dos enfoques diferentes. El primero consiste en ...