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Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Sixty years ago, Milton Friedman questioned the usefulness of the optimal control approach because of policymakers’ imperfect knowledge of the economy and favored instead a simple rule approach to monetary policy (1947, 1948). These are still live issues, despite the development of powerful techniques ...
Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research
The conduct of monetary policy in terms of interest rate or other rules has been extensively studied in recent research. This literature gives a central role to forecasts of future inflation and output, and the question of whether monetary policy should be forward- ooking has been subject to discussion ...
Inflation target transparency and the macroeconomy
Over the last twenty years, many central banks have adopted increasing standards of transparency in communicating their monetary policy objectives, in particular regarding the explicit definition and quantification of their price stability objective or inflation target. One important benefit of increased ...
Sources of uncertainty in conducting monetary policy in Chile
Monetary policy is made in an environment of substantial uncertainty. Consequently, academic researchers have sought to formally demonstrate the implications of uncertainty, as well as the ways in which central banks can manage it. The theoretical literature on uncertainty distinguishes between three ...
Determinacy, learnability, and plausibility in monetary policy analysis: additional results
It is almost superfluous to begin by emphasizing that recent research in monetary policy analysis has featured a great deal of work concerning conditions for determinacy—that is, existence of a unique dynamically stable rational expectations equilibrium— under various specifications of policy behavior.1 ...
Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in DSGE models: a markov jump-linear-quadratic approach
Our previous work develops methods to study optimal policy in Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) models with forward-looking variables: models with conditionally linear dynamics and conditionally quadratic preferences, where the matrices in both preferences and dynamics are random (Svensson and ...
Inflation dynamics in a small open economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile
Following the influential work of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003), many central banks are building and estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with nominal rigidities and are using them for policy analysis. This new generation of sticky ...
A sticky-information general equilibrium model for policy analysis
Following on Keynes’s desire that economists be as useful as dentists, Lucas (1980) argues that this would amount to the following: “Our task, as I see it, is to write a FORTRAN program that will accept specific economic policy rules as ‘input’ and will generate as ‘output’ statistics describing the ...
Overoptimism boom-bust cycles and monetary policy in small open economies
In the 1990s several emerging market economies such as Chile Mexico and a number of southeast Asian countries displayed episodes of peaking growth rates combined with increasing current account deficits and appreciating currencies which ended with abrupt reversions in capital flows and recessions. In ...
Monetary policy and key unobservables: evidence from large industrial and selected inflation-targeting countries
In recent years, the design of monetary policy has focused on gaps—the output gap, the interest rate gap, and the unemployment rate gap have all played a role in policy discussions. Standard models used for policy analysis are either specified in terms of such gaps or imply important roles for these ...