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Overoptimism boom-bust cycles and monetary policy in small open economies
In the 1990s several emerging market economies such as Chile Mexico and a number of southeast Asian countries displayed episodes of peaking growth rates combined with increasing current account deficits and appreciating currencies which ended with abrupt reversions in capital flows and recessions. In ...
Government spending and the real exchange rate: a cross-country perspective
There is no consensus about the economic implications of real exchange rate (RER) misalignments. Some authors argue that keeping the real exchange rate away from its equilibrium level creates distortions in the relative prices of tradable and nontradable goods generating misleading signals to economic ...
Targeting inflation in an economy with staggered price setting
After experiencing high and persistent inflation rates in the 1970s and early 1980s, most industrialized economies entered the new century with a sustained record of flow, stable inflation rates. Many commentators attribute the new environment to good luck, in the form of no major supply shocks (at ...
El horizonte de la política monetaria en Chile y otros países con metas de inflación
La tolerancia a cierta volatilidad en la tasa de inflación lleva a que aquellos países que tienen metas de inflación diseñen su política monetaria de modo que refleje flexibilidad en cuatro dimensiones: el índice de precios para el cual se define la meta, el ancho del rango meta, el punto medio del ...
Alternative monetary rules in the open-economy: a welfare-based approach
How do central banks choose among alternative monetary polocies? In this paper we analyze that question for an open economy following an interest rate rule. Many issues remain controversial in the design of such a rule. If inflation is targeted, as it presumably is, should the domestic interest rate ...
On current account surpluses and the correction of global imbalances
The United States has run an increasingly large current account deficit over the last few years. J. P. Morgan forecasts that in 2007 the deficit will reach almost one trillion dollars, or 7 percent of GDP. This unprecedented situation has generated concern among analysts and policymakers. Many argue ...
Inflation dynamics in a small open economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile
Following the influential work of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003), many central banks are building and estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with nominal rigidities and are using them for policy analysis. This new generation of sticky ...
A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations
Las autoridades monetarias tienen que planificar cuántas unidades de monedas y billetes necesitan comprar o producir para satisfacer las necesidades de la economía. Este documento presenta un sistema que contiene modelos de series de tiempo, así como algunos con variables fundamentales para proyectar ...
Policy evaluation and empirical growth research
This paper explores the implications of the vast body of studies of cross-country growth determinants for the evaluation of alternative policies. Empirical growth studies have experienced a remarkable flowering in the last fifteen years, and innumerable insights have unquestionably been uncovered ...
Principales motivaciones de los chilenos para ahorrar: evidencia usando datos subjetivos
Hay en economía una larga tradición que consiste en el uso de datos subjetivos ya sea para testear la racionalidad de los agentes o para medir los parámetros de la función de utilidad. En ambos casos se trata de poner al individuo en una situación hipotética y hacerle preguntas que le permitan al ...