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Politics and the determinants of banking crises: the effects of political checks and balances
There is likely to be little disagreement with the observation that political interference has exacerbated the problems associated with bank insolvencies. Nevertheless, most ot the analytical attention given to bank crises has focused on technocratic mistakes (inappropriate regulatory choices), exogenous ...
External conditions and growth performance
A central dimension of globalization is the world trend toward larger trade and financial openness, observed in most industrial and developing economies. Openness increases the integration of world goods and capital markets, contributing to potential gains in growth and welfare. However, increased ...
On current account surpluses and the correction of global imbalances
The United States has run an increasingly large current account deficit over the last few years. J. P. Morgan forecasts that in 2007 the deficit will reach almost one trillion dollars, or 7 percent of GDP. This unprecedented situation has generated concern among analysts and policymakers. Many argue ...
La demanda de dinero por motivo transacción en Chile
Este artículo analiza la demanda de dinero por motivo transacción en Chile entre los años 1986 y 2000. Utilizando el método de cointegración propuesto por Johansen (1995), se encuentra que, pese a que los datos macroeconómicos en Chile muestran una fuerte estacionariedad en tendencia, es posible ...
Emerging market fluctuations: the role of interest rates and productivity shocks
Business cycles in emerging markets are characterized by high levels of volatility in income, investment, and net exports. Consumption is more volatile than income, and net exports are highly countercyclical (see Aguiar and Gopinath, 2007). Furthermore, the interest rates faced by these economies are ...
Large hoardings of international reserves: are they worth it?
Several Asian economies have accumulated large stocks of international reserves over the last few years. This motivates the question we address in this paper from an empirical point of view. Are these large increases in reserves an efficient crisis-prevention strategy? Or are they second-best to other ...
Microeconomic flexibility in Latin America
Latin American economies have begun to leave behind some of the most primitive sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. Policy concern is gradually shifting toward increasing microeconomic flexibility. This is a welcome trend since microeconomic flexibility, which facilitates the ongoing process of ...
Crises in emerging market economies: a global perspective
It is now more than ten years since the “first crisis of the twentyfirst century,” as Michel Camdessus, the former managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called Mexico’s 1994–95 tequila crisis. The event is important not because it signaled a new environment (the tequila crisis ...
Financial diversification, sudden stops, and sudden starts
The financial crises of the second half of the 1990s have led to renewed interest in the causes and consequences of international capital flows. Sudden stops, defined as large drops in net capital inflows, have received particular attention, given the collapses in output and investment commonly ...
Latin America's access to international capital markets: good behavior or global liquidity?
Latin America has had an active presence in international markets since independence in the early nineteenth century. Participation has been quite volatile, though. International borrowing financed the wars of independence in the early 1800s, but the boom that started in 1822 with a loan to Colombia ...