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Inflation globally
The fortunes of the Phillips curve have ebbed and flowed ever
since it was proposed by Phillips (1958). Although its origins are
primarily as an empirical regularity, there is now a vast literature
that provides more formal justification. In recent times, the Great
Moderation and the modern era ...
Spillovers to emerging markets during global financial crisis
At the heart of the debate on how the 2007–09 global financial crisis spread from the United States to the rest of the world lies the global banks. Using a large sample composed of advanced and emerging economies since the 1980s Abiad and others (2013) show that the effect of financial linkages on ...
Trilemmas and tradeoffs: living with financial globalization
This paper evaluates the capacity of emerging market economies (EMEs) to moderate the domestic impact of global financial and monetary forces through their own monetary policies. I present the case that those EMEs able to exploit a flexible exchange rate are far better positioned than those that devote ...
The effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging market economies’ sovereign and corporate bond markets
The global environment for emerging market economy (EME) bond markets has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have developed especially in EMEs with low inflation stronger institutions and well defined creditor rights (see Burger and Warnock 2003 2006 ...
Monetary policy and dutch disease: the case of price and wage rigidity
From a theoretical point of view and as we will show the presence of both price and wage rigidities implies that to the extent that fiscal policy is unresponsive to shocks full price stability is not optimal. In this paper we study optimal monetary and exchange rate policy in a small open economy with ...
The supply-side origins of U.S. inflation
In recent years, we have not seen much of a negative correlation
between inflation, the time series plotted in figure 1, and measures of
resource slack, based on real GDP plotted in figure 2. This flattening
of the Phillips curve in many countries across the world has startled
monetary policymakers. ...
Asset bubbles and sudden stops in a small open economy
One of the most striking features of the world economy over the last twenty-five years has been the sharp decline in the real interest rate from approximately 4% in the early 1990s to -1.5% in 2013 (figure 1). During this period there have been two waves of large capital inflows into emerging economies ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...