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Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy
Este artículo analiza el poder predictivo multihorizonte de la Curva de Phillips Híbrida Neokeynesiana (HNKPC) en la economía Chilena, para el período comprendido entre enero del 2000 y diciembre del 2014. Un elemento distintivo de este artículo es el uso de una especificación de Vector Autoregresivo ...
Optimal inflation stabilization in a medium-scale macroeconomic model
What is the optimal monetary policy, and how can the central bank implement it? Both questions have been extensively studied, but always in the context of simple theoretical structures, which by design are limited in their ability to account for actual observed business cycle fluctuations. This article ...
Does inflation targeting make a difference?
Since New Zealand adopted inflation targeting in 1990, a steadily growing number of industrial and emerging economies have explicitly adopted an inflation target as their nominal anchor. Eight industrial countries and thirteen emerging economies had full-fledged inflation targeting in place in early ...
Indexation, inflationary inertia, and the sacrifice coeficient
When inflation is chronic, firms develop indexation practices that automatically tie the growth of prices, wages, and other contracts to the performance of some comprehensive price index. The microeconomic advantages of indexation are evident and derive from the immunization of the relative price ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Inflation targeting and the inflation process: lessons from an open economy
Inflation targeting in an open economy insolves a number of complexities that do not arise with inflation targeting in a clises economy. One of these is that central banks in open economies have to decide how to repond to changes in the exchange rate.
Indexation of public debt: analytical considerations and an application to the case of Brazil
Since the implementation of the Real Plan of 1994, the Brazilian economy has been in the process of reducing its degree of indexation. For more than three decades, Brazilian wages, rents, financial securities, and other contracts were indexed to the price level. The frequency of adjustment sometimes ...
A critical view of inflation targeting: crises, limited sustainability and aggregate shocks
Inflation targeting has recently been adopted by the central banks of several advanced economies, including Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The policy is widely perceived as having been successful (see the discussions in Leiderman and Svensson, 1995, ...