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Indexation, inflationary inertia, and the sacrifice coeficient
When inflation is chronic, firms develop indexation practices that automatically tie the growth of prices, wages, and other contracts to the performance of some comprehensive price index. The microeconomic advantages of indexation are evident and derive from the immunization of the relative price ...
A decade of inflation targeting in the world: what do we know and what do we need to know?
The emergence of inflation targeting over the last ten years represents an exciting development in central banks' approach to the conduct of monetary policy. After initial adoption by New Zealand in 1990, a growing number of central banks in industrial and emerging economies have opted for inflation ...
Ochenta años de historia del Banco Central de Chile
El Banco Central de Chile se creó en 1925, para 'dotar al país de una institución que estabilice la moneda y regule las tasas de intereses y descuentos, para evitar perturbaciones en el desenvolvimiento industrial y financiero de la Nación y fomentar su progreso económico' (Decreto Ley Nº 486, 22 de ...
Tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Chile: enfoques alternativos
En el marco de política monetaria basado en metas de inflación y flotación cambiaria, interesa conocer el valor de equilibrio del tipo de cambio real (TCR). Este trabajo describe los modelos de determinación del TCR de equilibrio de uso regular en el BCCh. En particular, se discuten los modelos de ...
A critical view of inflation targeting: crises, limited sustainability and aggregate shocks
Inflation targeting has recently been adopted by the central banks of several advanced economies, including Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The policy is widely perceived as having been successful (see the discussions in Leiderman and Svensson, 1995, ...
Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy
Este artículo analiza el poder predictivo multihorizonte de la Curva de Phillips Híbrida Neokeynesiana (HNKPC) en la economía Chilena, para el período comprendido entre enero del 2000 y diciembre del 2014. Un elemento distintivo de este artículo es el uso de una especificación de Vector Autoregresivo ...
Monetary policy under uncertainty and learning: an overview
Central bank economists and academic economists conducting research on the design of monetary policy have made significant advances in recent years. This work has led to a clearer understanding of the desirable properties of interest rate rules, the role of announcements and communication, and the ...
Proyecciones macroeconómicas en Chile: una aproximación estructural y bayesiana
En el presente trabajo se evalúa el desempeño de distintos modelos en la proyección de la tasa de inflación, la brecha del producto, el tipo de cambio real y la tasa de interés vinculada a la política monetaria. Los modelos lineales incluidos son de uso generalizado en los bancos centrales: un BVAR, ...
Dinero e inflación ¿en qué estamos?
Este trabajo analiza el rápido crecimiento del dinero (M1A) en la economía Chilena, el cual se ha dado en conjunto con una baja tasa de inflación y en el contexto de una relajación de la política monetaria. Esto ha sido usado como fundamento para argumentar que este crecimiento del dinero es incompatible ...
Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. Well-anchored expectations enable inflation-targeting central banks to achieve stable output and employment in the short run, while ensuring price stability in the long run. ...
Política monetaria bajo metas de inflación. Una revisión
Esta breve revisión hace un recorrido por la literatura reciente sobre política monetaria bajo metas de inflación y presenta nuevos resultados analíticos y estudios empíricos en la materia. Se examinan seis áreas centrales de la investigación previa: puesta en práctica y optimalidad de los principales ...
Credibility and inflation targeting in Chile
After a long history of high and volatile inflation, the Central Bank of Chile began implementing its monetary policy in the early 1990s by announcing yearly targets for inflation. This new framework was the first step toward a full-fledged inflation-targeting setup, although the Central Bank continued ...
Optimal inflation stabilization in a medium-scale macroeconomic model
What is the optimal monetary policy, and how can the central bank implement it? Both questions have been extensively studied, but always in the context of simple theoretical structures, which by design are limited in their ability to account for actual observed business cycle fluctuations. This article ...
Trade exposure and the evolution of inflation dynamics
The Phillips curve—the relationship between price inflation
and fluctuations in economic activity— is a central building block
of economic models that allow for nominal rigidities and are relied
upon by central banks around the world to gauge cyclical inflationary
pressures and forecast inflation. ...
The transformation and performance of emerging market economies across the great divide of the global financial crisis
Before the Global Financial Crisis, a drive towards greater central-bank autonomy and transparency, as part of the achievement of greater central-bank credibility that had begun in the advanced economies (AE), spread to the emerging market economies (EME). This process was greatly enhanced by the ...
Fiscal inflation and cosmetic defaults in a small open economy
For a small open economy, maintaining a stable exchange rate and moderate levels of inflation is often a goal of primary importance. At the same time, the profession has recognized the tight link between fiscal and monetary policies in determining inflation dynamics. Thus, the goal of a stable exchange ...
The passthrough of large-cost shocks in an inflationary economy
This paper surveys and modestly extends the theory of menu-cost
models of the behavior of the aggregate price level after large-cost
shocks. It does so in the context of an economy with a high underlying
rate of inflation. It concentrates on the effect of large permanent and
unexpected increases ...
Teorías y métodos de medición del producto de tendencia: una aplicación al caso de Chile
Este artículo presenta una revisión de las teorías de determinación del producto de tendencia. Se discuten alternativas metodológicas para derivar el producto de tendencia de la economía Chilena, utilizando información histórica trimestral para el período 1986-2001. Entre los métodos considerados ...
Preferencia de los bancos centrales por el largo plazo
Los bancos centrales suelen preferir tasas de interés de largo plazo como meta o como diagnóstico de política. Este artículo describe dos episodios históricos en que esto ha sucedido —Estados Unidos en 1942-51 y el Reino Unido en la década de 1960— y utiliza un modelo de dinámica inflacionaria para ...
The chilean experience in completing markets with financial indexation
For a Chilean capital market participant, it may be hard to imagine a world without the indexation unit, the Unidad de Fomento (UF). Most market participants would probably agree that the UF played a central role in the creation of a local capital market and also that it has had a positive impact on ...