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Economic growth: sources, trends and cycles
The importance of economic growth cannot be overstated. Income growth is essential for achieving economic, social, and even political development. In recent years, an enormous amount of talent and effort has been invested in understanding the process of economic growth, making it one of the most dynamic ...
A toolkit for analyzing alternative policies in the chilean economy
As noted by Leeper (1995) “the business pages of leading newspapers give the impression that the effects of alternative monetary policies on the macroeconomy are well understood and predictable.” They tend “to write with great certainty that when the monetary authority raises interest rates it slows ...
It's not factor accumulation: stylized facts and growth models
The central problem in understanding economic development and growth is not, in fact, to understand the process by which an economy raises its savings rate and increases the rate of physical capital accumulation. Many development practitioners and researchers continue to target capital accumulation ...
The war of ideas in economic development: a historical perspective
In the early 1970s when he had barely turned thirty years old Vittorio Corbo was already a legend of sorts among development economists. His dissertation at M.I.T. became an instant classic a work that had to be read by anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of inflation in developing nations. ...
The effects of business cycles on growth
This paper explores the links between business cycles and long-run growth. Although it is clear from a theoretical point of view that both of these phenomena are driven by the same macroeconomic variables, the interaction between economic fluctuations and growth has been largely ignored in the academic ...
Fifteen years of new growth economics: what have we learned?
Paul Romer’s paper, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” is now fifteen years old. This pathbreaking contribution led to a resurgence in research on economic growth. The resulting literature has in had a number of important impacts. In particular, it shifted the research focus of macroeconomists. ...
Nonlinear effects of the chilean fiscal policy
En Chile, la literatura empírica que ha estudiado los efectos de la política fiscal y los multiplicadores fiscales utilizando modelos lineales de vectores autorregresivos encuentra resultados dispares. El presente documento aporta un nuevo elemento a este debate estudiando si el estado en el que se ...
Overoptimism boom-bust cycles and monetary policy in small open economies
In the 1990s several emerging market economies such as Chile Mexico and a number of southeast Asian countries displayed episodes of peaking growth rates combined with increasing current account deficits and appreciating currencies which ended with abrupt reversions in capital flows and recessions. In ...
Trends, cycles, and convergence
Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product ...
Quantity and quality of economic growth
Most cross-country studies of economic growth, including my earlier research, focus on the determinants of narrow economic variables. The variables most often studied are the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the ratio of investment to GDP. In this study, my focus is on the ...