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The effects of business cycles on growth
This paper explores the links between business cycles and long-run growth. Although it is clear from a theoretical point of view that both of these phenomena are driven by the same macroeconomic variables, the interaction between economic fluctuations and growth has been largely ignored in the academic ...
A network model of super-systemic crises
Are financial systems shock absorbers or shock amplifiers? Policymakers and academics have long remained divided over this fundamental question. On the one hand some contend that financial innovation and integration make the financial world a safer place (Greenspan 1999) others argue the opposite by ...
Under what conditions can inflation targeting be adopted? The experience of emerging markets
Inflation targeting has become an increasingly popular monetary policy strategy, with 21 countries (8 industrial and 13 emerging market economies) targeting inflation and others considering following in their footsteps. Numerous studies of inflation targeting in industrial countries have been conducted, ...
Capital flow management with multiple instruments
Emerging markets (EMs) are affected by a global financial cycle originating in developed economies (Rey 2013). An increase in risk appetite of developed economies perhaps spurred by easy monetary policy leads to a surge in capital flows to EMs. These foreign capital flows especially foreign portfolio ...
Terms of trade shocks and investment in commodity-exporting economies
Commodity prices have experienced significant swings over the past two decades. Real commodity prices have on average more than doubled in the last decade compared to the previous one while the prices of some commodities such as copper and other industrial metals have more than tripled in real terms. ...
Bernanke's no-arbitrage argument revisited: can open market operations in real assets eliminate the liquidity trap?
This paper looks back on the professional consensus about monetary policy at the zero bound prior to the 2008 crisis and proposes a calibrated model that provides one interpretation to explain why it was somewhat off base. The general consensus in the economics profession in the late 1990s when Japan ...
The global financial crisis
Financial crises have been pervasive for many years. Bordo and others (2001) find that in recent decades their frequency has doubled that of the Bretton Woods period (1945–71) and the gold standard era (1880–1993) becoming comparable only to the period during the Great Depression. Nevertheless the ...
Quantitative easing and financial stability
Since the global financial crisis of 2008–09 many of the leading central banks have dramatically increased the size of their balance sheets and have shifted the composition of the assets that they hold toward larger shares of longer-term securities (as well as toward assets that are riskier in other ...
Captial controls and foreign exchange policy
The question of whether capital controls should be part of the tool box for policymakers to deal with capital flows has become one of the central issues in the international economic policy debate. It was one of the key policy issues in the G20 under the French Presidency in 2011 and it has been covered ...
Trilemmas and tradeoffs: living with financial globalization
This paper evaluates the capacity of emerging market economies (EMEs) to moderate the domestic impact of global financial and monetary forces through their own monetary policies. I present the case that those EMEs able to exploit a flexible exchange rate are far better positioned than those that devote ...