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Inflation targeting: an overview
After the emergence of a consensus in the 1980s on the harmful effects of inflation, the last decade of the twentieth century witnessed a market reduction in inflation rates across the world. By the end of the 1980s, empirical evidence collected from large cross-country analyses and numerous case ...
Alternative monetary rules in the open-economy: a welfare-based approach
How do central banks choose among alternative monetary polocies? In this paper we analyze that question for an open economy following an interest rate rule. Many issues remain controversial in the design of such a rule. If inflation is targeted, as it presumably is, should the domestic interest rate ...
Banking, financial integration, and international crises: an overview
The devaluation of the Thau bath in July 1997 triggered a major international financial crisis in East Asia, similar in many ways to the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s. The baht´s devaluation led to a Seriesos sharp devaluations in several other Asian countries, in particular Indonesia, ...
Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates: an introduction to inflation targeting
Both policymakers and economists increasingly accept that the main medium- to long-run goal of monetary policy is the pursuit of price stability, defined as maintaining a low and stable rate of inflation. A high and variable inflation rate is socially and economically costly.
Trends, cycles, and convergence
Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product ...
Reviewing the evidence against absolute convergence
Few subjects in applied economic research have been studied as extensively as the convergence hypothesis advanced by Solow (1956) and documented by Baumol (1986). In simple terms, the hypothesis states that poor countries or regions tend to grow faster than rich ones. In its strongest version (known ...
The monetary transmission mechanism and the evaluation of monetary policy rules
This paper explores the connection between the monetary transmission mechanism -the channel through which a change in monetary policy affects the economy- and the choice of monetary policy rules to guide central bank decisions. Differente views of the monetary transmission mechanism are readily apparent ...
It's not factor accumulation: stylized facts and growth models
The central problem in understanding economic development and growth is not, in fact, to understand the process by which an economy raises its savings rate and increases the rate of physical capital accumulation. Many development practitioners and researchers continue to target capital accumulation ...
The monetary transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom: pass-through and policy rules
A number of recent papers have used policy simulations from small empirical macroeconomic models to assess the efficacy of inflation targeting or, more precisely, inflation forecast targeting (Svensson, 1997a). These include Rudebush and Svensson (1999). The models used to undertake these simulations ...
Some measures of financial fragility in the chilean banking system: an early warning indicators application
The regulatory framework of the chilean financial system includes a number of regulations that seek to maintain the financial stability of banks. On one hand, the Central Bank of Chile in its role as regulator and, on the other hand, the Superintendency of Banks in its role as supervisor have set a ...
Monetary policy in Chile: a black box?
During the 1990s the Chilean economy gradually cut its inflation rate from figures in the thirties to 4.7 percent in 1998. Central bank authorities have declared that the main objective of monetary policy is to reduce inflation to levels comparableto those in industrial countries. The desgnated ...
Indexation, inflationary inertia, and the sacrifice coeficient
When inflation is chronic, firms develop indexation practices that automatically tie the growth of prices, wages, and other contracts to the performance of some comprehensive price index. The microeconomic advantages of indexation are evident and derive from the immunization of the relative price ...
A decade of inflation targeting in the world: what do we know and what do we need to know?
The emergence of inflation targeting over the last ten years represents an exciting development in central banks' approach to the conduct of monetary policy. After initial adoption by New Zealand in 1990, a growing number of central banks in industrial and emerging economies have opted for inflation ...
Asset prices in Chile: facts and fads
Chile enjoyed an unprecedent period of rapid and sustained growth in the 1986-98 period. Although average growth exceeded 7.1 percent a year, significant cyclical fluctuations also marked the period, both across sectors and across time. Growth in the tradable sectors exceeded 6.7 percent annually from ...
A critical view of inflation targeting: crises, limited sustainability and aggregate shocks
Inflation targeting has recently been adopted by the central banks of several advanced economies, including Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The policy is widely perceived as having been successful (see the discussions in Leiderman and Svensson, 1995, ...
Financial regulation and performance: cross-country evidence
The unprecedented number of costly bank failures throughout the world in the last two decades of the twentieth century has focused attention on the need to determine more appropriate ways to improve the performance of countries financial systems. Indeed, a substantial literature is already emerging ...
Market discipline and exuberant foreign borrowing
The debt crisis of the 1980s confirmed what most economists already knew well: the public sector cannot be trusted to make the rigth choices on behalf of society, especially in matters-such as foreign borrowing- whose ultimate costs may not be fully internalized by voters. The failure of the public ...
The chilean experience in completing markets with financial indexation
For a Chilean capital market participant, it may be hard to imagine a world without the indexation unit, the Unidad de Fomento (UF). Most market participants would probably agree that the UF played a central role in the creation of a local capital market and also that it has had a positive impact on ...
Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes
Do better functioning financial intermediaries -financial intermediaries that are better at ameliorating information asymmetrics and facilitating transactions- exert a causal influence on economic growth? Providing evidence on causality has implications for policymakers and economists. For instance, ...
La nueva economía del crecimiento: ¿qué hemos aprendido en quince años?
El artículo de Paul Romer sobre retornos crecientes y crecimiento de largo plazo, publicado hace ya quince años, hizo resurgir la investigación sobre crecimiento económico. Desde entonces la literatura del crecimiento se ha expandido en forma vertiginosa y ha reorientado la investigación de muchas ...