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The great recession and the great depression: reflections and lessons
My Economics Department colleagues are fond of telling me that as an economic historian I have the advantage that I don’t have to update my lectures in response to events. My history lectures don’t become outdated as quickly as their lectures on say the Great Moderation. The fallacy of this view is ...
The monetary transmission mechanism in the United Kingdom: pass-through and policy rules
A number of recent papers have used policy simulations from small empirical macroeconomic models to assess the efficacy of inflation targeting or, more precisely, inflation forecast targeting (Svensson, 1997a). These include Rudebush and Svensson (1999). The models used to undertake these simulations ...
Desafíos del manejo de la liquidez y de los activos internacionales en latinoamérica
Analizamos la creciente importancia de los fondos soberanos y la difusión de las metas de inflación y reglas de Taylor aumentadas y su impacto sobre el ajuste de los países latinoamericanos a los desafíos planteados por shocks financieros y de términos de intercambio post crisis. Confirmamos que la ...
Adapting macroprudential policies to global liquidity conditions
The global financial crisis that erupted in 2007 has had intellectual repercussions as well as large economic costs. Recent events in the advanced economies especially the capital flow reversals and the looming banking sector crises in Europe have shaken the conviction that traditional yardsticks of ...
¿Son mejores los sistemas financieros basados en el sistema bancario o los basados en el mercado bursátil?
Por más de un siglo, los economistas y quienes tienen a cargo la política económica han debatido las ventajas relativas a los sistemas financieros basados en el mercado bursátil con respecto a los basados en el sistema bancario. Recientemente, sin embargo, quienes han propuesto un desarrollo del sistema ...
Captial controls and foreign exchange policy
The question of whether capital controls should be part of the tool box for policymakers to deal with capital flows has become one of the central issues in the international economic policy debate. It was one of the key policy issues in the G20 under the French Presidency in 2011 and it has been covered ...
Under what conditions can inflation targeting be adopted? The experience of emerging markets
Inflation targeting has become an increasingly popular monetary policy strategy, with 21 countries (8 industrial and 13 emerging market economies) targeting inflation and others considering following in their footsteps. Numerous studies of inflation targeting in industrial countries have been conducted, ...
Exchange rate structural fiscal balance and copper price: a puzzle
Chile’s exchange rate shows a strong volatility to copper price fluctuations. This correlation is essentially because copper is our main export product therefore increases in the price of copper imply higher returns from copper export volumes both for private and the stateowned mining company Codelco. ...
Short-term interest rates and bank lending terms: evidence from a survey of U.S. loans
The long period of low interest rates that followed the global financial crisis has rekindled interest in how short-term interest rates affect bank behavior. In particular it has led to a debate on how low policy rates influence bank risk-taking. This risk-taking channel of monetary policy corresponds ...
Una revisión del comportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo
Las tasas de ahorro varían ampliamente en el mundo: en promedio, el este de Asia ahorra sobre 30% del ingreso nacional bruto disponible (INBD), mientras que África del sub-Sahara ahorra menos de 15%. Es más, las diferencias regionales han ido aumentando: durante las últimas tres décadas las tasas de ...