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Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Sixty years ago, Milton Friedman questioned the usefulness of the optimal control approach because of policymakers’ imperfect knowledge of the economy and favored instead a simple rule approach to monetary policy (1947, 1948). These are still live issues, despite the development of powerful techniques ...
Monetary policy under uncertainty and learning: an overview
Central bank economists and academic economists conducting research on the design of monetary policy have made significant advances in recent years. This work has led to a clearer understanding of the desirable properties of interest rate rules, the role of announcements and communication, and the ...
Inflation target transparency and the macroeconomy
Over the last twenty years, many central banks have adopted increasing standards of transparency in communicating their monetary policy objectives, in particular regarding the explicit definition and quantification of their price stability objective or inflation target. One important benefit of increased ...
Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research
The conduct of monetary policy in terms of interest rate or other rules has been extensively studied in recent research. This literature gives a central role to forecasts of future inflation and output, and the question of whether monetary policy should be forward- ooking has been subject to discussion ...
Sources of uncertainty in conducting monetary policy in Chile
Monetary policy is made in an environment of substantial uncertainty. Consequently, academic researchers have sought to formally demonstrate the implications of uncertainty, as well as the ways in which central banks can manage it. The theoretical literature on uncertainty distinguishes between three ...
Learning, endogenous indexation, and disinflation in the new-keynesian model
Developing a better understanding of the costs of disinflation has long been an important objective for macroeconomic research. Since the 1980s, disinflation episodes and strategies have been studied extensively under the assumption of rational expectations. This assumption implies that central bank ...
Determinacy, learnability, and plausibility in monetary policy analysis: additional results
It is almost superfluous to begin by emphasizing that recent research in monetary policy analysis has featured a great deal of work concerning conditions for determinacy—that is, existence of a unique dynamically stable rational expectations equilibrium— under various specifications of policy behavior.1 ...
Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in DSGE models: a markov jump-linear-quadratic approach
Our previous work develops methods to study optimal policy in Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) models with forward-looking variables: models with conditionally linear dynamics and conditionally quadratic preferences, where the matrices in both preferences and dynamics are random (Svensson and ...
Robust learning stability with operational monetary policy rules
The recent literature examines the conduct of monetary policy in terms of interest rate rules from the viewpoint of imperfect knowledge and learning by economic agents. The stability of the rational expectations equilibrium is taken as a key desideratum for good monetary policy design. Most of this ...
Inflation dynamics in a small open economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile
Following the influential work of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003), many central banks are building and estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with nominal rigidities and are using them for policy analysis. This new generation of sticky ...