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Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Inflation globally
The fortunes of the Phillips curve have ebbed and flowed ever
since it was proposed by Phillips (1958). Although its origins are
primarily as an empirical regularity, there is now a vast literature
that provides more formal justification. In recent times, the Great
Moderation and the modern era ...
Memoria anual 2019
El Banco Central de Chile busca realizar su gestión con eficiencia, en un marco de creciente transparencia de sus acciones e incorporando de manera permanente la aplicación de criterios y políticas adheridas a las mejores prácticas observadas a nivel mundial.
Este documento conforma nuestra primera ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
Changing inflation dynamics, evolving monetary policy
Empirical models have failed to explain inflation behavior over the last 20 years in most developed economies. The unusual inflation dynamics—the ‘missing deflation’ during recessions and the ‘missing inflation’ during recoveries—points to a failure of Phillips curve predictions. Several hypotheses ...
Integrated Annual Report 2021
The Central Bank faced multiple challenges in 2021, especially due to the consequences of the worst period of the pandemic, which continued to affect the normal functioning of the economy. The persistence of the health crisis substantially changed the ways in which people, institutions, and the financial ...
Memoria Anual Integrada 2021
El año 2021 abrió con múltiples desafíos para el Banco Central, especialmente por las consecuencias del periodo más duro de la pandemia, que continuó alterando el funcionamiento normal de la economía. La crisis sanitaria y su persistencia modificaron sustancialmente las formas de relacionamiento entre ...
Memoria Anual Integrada 2022
El año 2022 fue complejo para el Banco Central porque su meta de inflación de 3% se vio absolutamente sobrepasada, lo que obligó a nuestra institución a tomar drásticas decisiones de política monetaria, como parte de un ciclo de alzas que ya había comenzado el año anterior.
Entre enero y octubre, la ...