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A sticky-information general equilibrium model for policy analysis
Following on Keynes’s desire that economists be as useful as dentists, Lucas (1980) argues that this would amount to the following: “Our task, as I see it, is to write a FORTRAN program that will accept specific economic policy rules as ‘input’ and will generate as ‘output’ statistics describing the ...
External vulnerability and preventive policies
Emerging market economies endure significant macroeconomic volatility. The large correlation between external factors, e.g., terms of trade and world interest rate shocks, and domestic macroeconomic volatility is highly suggestive of their key role, but it does not explain the mechanism through which ...
General equilibrium models for the Chilean economy
General equilibrium theory and modeling have proved to be useful for understanding economic interactions between markets and agents and the determination of prices and quantities. Applied general equilibrium models (GEM) have been developed and used to address a wide range of theoretical questions and ...
The relationship between exchange rates and inflation targeting revisited
For decades, the exchange rate was at the center of macroeconomic policy debates in emerging markets. Many countries used the nominal exchange rate to bring down inflation, –others—mostly in Latin America—used the exchange rate to implicitly tax the export sector. Currency crises were common and usually ...
Managing the capital account
Globalization has been under attack over the last few years. Activists, famous academics, and commentators of various stripes have mounted a systematic campaign against free trade in goods and, especially, in financial claims. One of the latest manifestations of this antiliberalization mood was the ...
Is the foreign exchange derivatives market effective and efficient in reducing currency risk?
Floating foreign exchange rates have gained increased support as a preferred system for reducing the vulnerability of emerging markets to external shocks. The volatility associated with floating exchange rates, however, exposes economic agents to the risk of changes in the valuation of the financial ...
Current account and external financing: an introduction
Economic analysts were surprised by the collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997. In the months that followed, most of the so-called East Asian Tigers faced severe balance-of-payments crises, and a year later, in August 1998, the Russian ruble was devalued. As a result of this succession of crises, the ...
Current account deficits: the Australian debate
Large and persistent current account deficits are frequently raised as a cause for concern for a number of reasons. Perhaps the key concern is that countries in this situation could be on a path to insolvency, building up excessive net foreign debt, raising the prospects of default or a sharp reversal ...
Monetary policy: rules and transmission mechanisms
Monetary policy must consider the bidirectional relationship between the economy and its central bank. It should therefore address two essential questions: first, how changes in the economy induce a reaction by the central bank, and second, how these policy changes are in turn transmitted to the ...