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The international financial system after Covid-19 

Autor
Obstfeld, Maurice
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
In March of 2020, international markets seized up with a violence unequaled since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) nearly a dozen years before. As economies around the world locked down in the face of the potentially deadly but completely novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, stock markets fell, firms and governments ...
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Exchange rate puzzles and policies 

Autor
Itskhoki, Oleg; Mukhin, Dmitry
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
What is the optimal exchange rate policy? Should exchange rates be optimally pegged, managed, or allowed to freely float? What defines a freely floating exchange rate? Do open economies face a trilemma constraint in choosing between inflation and exchange rate stabilization, unlike divine coincidence ...
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Cross-border corporate control: openness and tax havens 

Autor
Aminadav, Gur; Fonseca, Luís; Papaioannou, Elias
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
Cross-border corporate control is a major facet of globalisation. In roughly one out of four listed controlled companies in 2012, control was exercised by a foreign entity or family/individual. Controlling—and passive—ownership stakes are often hidden in complex structures, involving pyramids and ...
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The reversal problem: development going backwards 

Autor
Olaberria, Eduardo; Reinhart, Carmen M.
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
The Covid-19 pandemic triggered the most synchronous economic downturn in more than a century. Ninety percent of countries posted a decline in real per-capita GDP in 2020, a share that surpassed any other year since 1900, which includes two world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930s.1 The health ...
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International risk spillovers: implications for emerging markets’ monetary policy frameworks with an application to Chile 

Autor
Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
Among the factors behind international spillovers, U.S. monetary policy developments retain a major influence. Such developments drive the global financial cycle as strongly demonstrated by Rey (2013), Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020), Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2021). The dramatic U.S. monetary ...
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Global drivers and macroeconomic volatility in EMEs: a dynamic-factor, general-equilibrium perspective 

Autor
Bajraj, Gent; Fuentes D., Miguel; García S., Benjamín; Lorca, Jorge; Paillacar, Manuel; Wlasiuk, Juan M.; Fernández, Andrés
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
A common view held by academics as well as policymakers assigns an important role to global factors as drivers of fluctuations in economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs). This follows naturally from the fact that these economies are often small and open to trade in global goods and capital ...
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How important is the commodity supercycle? 

Autor
Fernández, Andrés; Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
World commodity prices are known to display long cycles. These cycles have a periodicity of 20 to 30 years and are called commodityprice supercycles. Figure 1 displays the time paths of eleven commodity prices deflated by the U.S. consumer price index over the period 1960 to 2018. All commodity prices ...
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Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds 

Autor
Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel; Alves Monteiro, Ricardo
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
The choice of sovereign-debt maturity in countries at risk of default represents a complex set of competing forces. The tradeoffs reflect the underlying frictions present in international sovereign-debt markets. The primary frictions are the lack of state contingency in debt contracts and the inability ...
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KFstar and portfolio inflows: a focus on Latin America 

Autor
Burger, John D.; Warnock, Francis E.; Cacdac Warnock, Veronica
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2023-08-09
Policymakers faced with volatile capital flows may desire a method to identify the level of flows likely to persist in the medium run. In a series of papers (Burger, Warnock, and Warnock, henceforth BWW, 2018, 2022), we have developed an estimate of the natural or equilibrium level of capital flows ...
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Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area 

Autor
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W.
Fecha
Banco Central de Chile, 2020
Temas
INFLACIÓN; POLÍTICA MONETARIA
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years. Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation, requires statistical ...
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