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Trade exposure and the evolution of inflation dynamics
The Phillips curve—the relationship between price inflation
and fluctuations in economic activity— is a central building block
of economic models that allow for nominal rigidities and are relied
upon by central banks around the world to gauge cyclical inflationary
pressures and forecast inflation. ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
International risk spillovers: implications for emerging markets’ monetary policy frameworks with an application to Chile
Among the factors behind international spillovers, U.S. monetary policy developments retain a major influence. Such developments
drive the global financial cycle as strongly demonstrated by Rey (2013), Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020), Miranda-Agrippino and
Rey (2021). The dramatic U.S. monetary ...
Cross-border corporate control: openness and tax havens
Cross-border corporate control is a major facet of globalisation. In roughly one out of four listed controlled companies in 2012, control was exercised by a foreign entity or family/individual. Controlling—and passive—ownership stakes are often hidden in complex structures, involving pyramids and ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy
Monetary policies leave a fiscal footprint. When the central bank cuts the policy interest rate, this footprint comes through multiple
channels: The demand for currency rises, so the central bank prints more banknotes to accommodate it, and this creates seignorage revenues. Inflation unexpectedly ...