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Goverment size misallocation and the resource curse
Structural transformation is a reallocation of labor across sectors. In this paper I investigate the impact of structural transformation in an open economy on sectoral and aggregate productivity with a particular focus on the role of government. While there are potentially many sources of structural ...
Domestic financial frictions and the transmission of foreign shocks in Chile
In the early 90’s a literature emerged emphasizing the role of external factors in explaining business cycle fluctuations in emerging countries. In particular changes in the terms of trade and world interest rates are generally viewed as the main external factors affecting these economies. Additionally ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
Contingent reserves management: an applied framework
One of the most serious problems that a central bank in an emerging market economy can face is the sudden reversal of capital inflows (or sudden stops). Hoarding international reserves can be used to smooth the impact of such reversals (see, for example, Lee, 2004), but these reserves are seldom ...
Valuation effects and external adjustment: a review
Ever since David Hume introduced his price-specie flow mechanism in 1752, the question of external adjustment has been a classic issue for international macroeconomists. In 1968 Robert Mundell asked “To what extent should surplus countries expand, to what extent should deficit countries contract?” ...
Asset bubbles and sudden stops in a small open economy
One of the most striking features of the world economy over the last twenty-five years has been the sharp decline in the real interest rate from approximately 4% in the early 1990s to -1.5% in 2013 (figure 1). During this period there have been two waves of large capital inflows into emerging economies ...
The carry trade in industrialized and emerging markets
The profitability of currency carry trades in and of itself is 'economic' evidence against the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. There is a wide variety of 'statistical' evidence against UIP. Yet the relationship between these two types of evidence and their implications for time variation ...
Financial diversification, sudden stops, and sudden starts
The financial crises of the second half of the 1990s have led to renewed interest in the causes and consequences of international capital flows. Sudden stops, defined as large drops in net capital inflows, have received particular attention, given the collapses in output and investment commonly ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations
Las autoridades monetarias tienen que planificar cuántas unidades de monedas y billetes necesitan comprar o producir para satisfacer las necesidades de la economía. Este documento presenta un sistema que contiene modelos de series de tiempo, así...