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Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy
Monetary policies leave a fiscal footprint. When the central bank cuts the policy interest rate, this footprint comes through multiple
channels: The demand for currency rises, so the central bank prints more banknotes to accommodate it, and this creates seignorage revenues. Inflation unexpectedly ...
Estructura financiera en Chile: desarrollos macroeconómicos y efectos microeconómicos
El objetivo de este trabajo es describir el desarrollo de los mercados financieros en Chile a nivel macroeconómico, y luego examinar los efectos de este desarrollo en un conjunto de empresas. Para ello, el trabajo evalúa los cambios observados en el...
Una solución a la prociclicidad fiscal: Chile, pionero en instituciones presupuestarias estructurales
se agrava si el gobierno está sujeto formalmente a una regla presupuestaria. La innovación esencial que ha permitido a Chile aplicar una política fiscal contracíclica y generar superávits durante los auges no es sólo la regla estructural propiamente...
Has the U.S. wage phillips curve flattened? A semi-structural exploration
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial
crisis of 2007–2009 led to a large increase in the unemployment rate in
most advanced economies. Ten years later, at the time of writing this
paper, the recession has long ended, and the subsequent recoveries
have brought the ...
El carry trade en mercados industrializados y emergentes
Se revisa la evidencia sobre las ganancias asociadas al carry trade, se explora su relación con el dilema de la paridad de intereses descubierta (PID) y con el comportamiento de las primas por riesgo. Se confirman resultados anteriores en cuanto a...
Trade exposure and the evolution of inflation dynamics
The Phillips curve—the relationship between price inflation
and fluctuations in economic activity— is a central building block
of economic models that allow for nominal rigidities and are relied
upon by central banks around the world to gauge cyclical inflationary
pressures and forecast inflation. ...
Risks to central-bank independence
Central banking today faces a number of existential challenges. On the political side, and particularly after the financial crisis, the public has come to expect central banks to take on a dizzying array of responsibilities, some far beyond...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Disciplina de mercado en la conducta de los depositantes y rol de las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo: el caso de Chile
Este estudio revisa la evidencia sobre la disciplina de mercado de los depositantes en el sistema bancario Chileno, y analiza el rol de las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo en cuanto a complementar la información con que cuenta el mercado para...