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The great recession and the great depression: reflections and lessons
My Economics Department colleagues are fond of telling me that as an economic historian I have the advantage that I don’t have to update my lectures in response to events. My history lectures don’t become outdated as quickly as their lectures on say the Great Moderation. The fallacy of this view is ...
Inflation targeting in financially stable economies: has it been flexible enough?
The international financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008- 09 called for a range of significant policy measures by central banks beyond aggressive interest rate cuts. Measures have ranged from improving international coordination to purchasing local private loan portfolios and direct intervention ...
A network model of super-systemic crises
Are financial systems shock absorbers or shock amplifiers? Policymakers and academics have long remained divided over this fundamental question. On the one hand some contend that financial innovation and integration make the financial world a safer place (Greenspan 1999) others argue the opposite by ...
Spillovers to emerging markets during global financial crisis
At the heart of the debate on how the 2007–09 global financial crisis spread from the United States to the rest of the world lies the global banks. Using a large sample composed of advanced and emerging economies since the 1980s Abiad and others (2013) show that the effect of financial linkages on ...
Has the U.S. wage phillips curve flattened? A semi-structural exploration
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial
crisis of 2007–2009 led to a large increase in the unemployment rate in
most advanced economies. Ten years later, at the time of writing this
paper, the recession has long ended, and the subsequent recoveries
have brought the ...
Modeling a housing and mortgage crisis
The current crisis has centered on borrower defaults on mortgages and the associated effects on banks’ own credit standing (and in several cases their own default), which in turn led to tightened conditions for lending to new (mortgage) borrowers. Any model that does not incorporate all or most of ...
The global financial crisis
Financial crises have been pervasive for many years. Bordo and others (2001) find that in recent decades their frequency has doubled that of the Bretton Woods period (1945–71) and the gold standard era (1880–1993) becoming comparable only to the period during the Great Depression. Nevertheless the ...
Asset bubbles and sudden stops in a small open economy
One of the most striking features of the world economy over the last twenty-five years has been the sharp decline in the real interest rate from approximately 4% in the early 1990s to -1.5% in 2013 (figure 1). During this period there have been two waves of large capital inflows into emerging economies ...
Liquidity and foreing asset management challenges for Latin America countries
The Global Financial Crisis put to the fore the challenges of managing liquidity and foreign assets at times of heightened volatility. Earlier concerns of some observers regarding the costs of precautionary hoarding notwithstanding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) validated the buffer value of ...
Funding liquidity risk in a quantitative model of systemic stability
The global financial crisis of 2007–09 has illustrated the importance of including funding liquidity feedbacks in any model of systemic risk. This paper illustrates how we have incorporated such channels into a risk assessment model for systemic institutions (RAMSI) and it outlines the Bank of England’s ...