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Jobless recoveries during financial crises: is inflation the way out?
The slow rate of employment growth relative to that of output is a sticking point in the recovery from the financial crisis episode that started in 2008 in the U.S. and Europe (a phenomenon labeled 'jobless recovery'). The issue is a particularly burning one in Europe where some observers claim that ...
The credit channel and monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile: a structured VAR approach
The widespread adoption of inflation-targeting regimes by emerging market economies has generated considerable interest in the channels through which monetary policy shocks affect output inflation and other relevant aggregates in such economies. Yet there is a paucity of empirical research for emerging ...
Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy
Este artículo analiza el poder predictivo multihorizonte de la Curva de Phillips Híbrida Neokeynesiana (HNKPC) en la economía Chilena, para el período comprendido entre enero del 2000 y diciembre del 2014. Un elemento distintivo de este artículo es el uso de una especificación de Vector Autoregresivo ...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
The passthrough of large-cost shocks in an inflationary economy
This paper surveys and modestly extends the theory of menu-cost
models of the behavior of the aggregate price level after large-cost
shocks. It does so in the context of an economy with a high underlying
rate of inflation. It concentrates on the effect of large permanent and
unexpected increases ...
Proyecciones macroeconómicas en Chile: una aproximación estructural y bayesiana
uso generalizado en los bancos centrales: un BVAR, un modelo reducido neokeynesiano y un DSGE, todos estimados con econometría bayesiana. Se utilizan como benchmark modelos univariados de series de tiempo (AR(1) y camino aleatorio) pero estimados con...
La política monetaria cercada por un movimiento de pinzas
La política monetaria se ha visto cercada entre ciclos financieros crecientes por un lado, y un proceso inflacionario que se ha vuelto bastante insensible a las holguras locales, por el otro. Este doble ataque ha dejado al descubierto algunas de las limitaciones de los marcos de política monetaria ...
Política monetaria en tiempos complejos
Durante los últimos años la economía chilena ha sufrido shocks importantes que han implicado un gran desafío para la conducción de la política monetaria. El fin del súper ciclo de las materias primas y condiciones financieras internacionales más estrechas junto con una caída importante en los niveles ...