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A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations
Las autoridades monetarias tienen que planificar cuántas unidades de monedas y billetes necesitan comprar o producir para satisfacer las necesidades de la economía. Este documento presenta un sistema que contiene modelos de series de tiempo, así como algunos con variables fundamentales para proyectar ...
Determinantes de la competencia en la banca Chilena
En este trabajo estimamos primero la competencia para el periodo 2008-2016, mediante un indicador cuya utilización fundamentamos sobre la base de las características particulares de la banca Chilena. Luego, evaluamos los determinantes de la competencia con un set comprehensivo de variables explicativas, ...
Saving distortions undervalued exchange rates and protectionism
Policies that distort domestic saving decisions have general equilibrium effects on trade flows and the real exchange rate. In particular increasing domestic savings keeps the real exchange rate undervalued depressing imports and increasing exports. However there are important differences between ...
Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on asset prices
On 16 December 2008 the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate—its traditional monetary policy instrument—to essentially zero in response to the most severe U.S. financial crisis since the Great Depression. Because U.S. currency carries an interest ...
La independencia del Banco Central de Chile: los años iniciales
En este artículo analizo algunos aspectos de la experiencia del Banco Central en la etapa inicial de su autonomía y en especial durante el período 1989-1991 en que me correspondió presidirlo. Para ello utilizo un enfoque de economía política. Dos razones principales justifican esta opción. La primera ...
Monetary policy in the grip of a pincer movement
Monetary policy has come under strain since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–09. Once the GFC broke out central banks’ swift and determined response was essential to stabilise markets and to avoid a self-reinforcing downward spiral between the financial system and the real economy. But putting ...
Local impacts of trade liberalization: evidence from the chilean agricultural sector
Protectionist trade policies aim at shielding some sectors— typically but not exclusively manufacturing—from international competition. In doing so they may produce unintended consequences. In particular they tend to create some taxed sectors that use protected inputs usually in the agricultural sector ...
A new liquidity risk measure for the Chilean banking sector
El objetivo de este trabajo es construir una medida apropiada del riesgo de liquidez para los bancos Chilenos. Ya existen varias medidas de riesgo de liquidez en la literatura, la mayoría basada en supuestos específicos y en opiniones de expertos. Con el fin de superar los posibles problemas de hacer ...
Government spending and the real exchange rate: a cross-country perspective
There is no consensus about the economic implications of real exchange rate (RER) misalignments. Some authors argue that keeping the real exchange rate away from its equilibrium level creates distortions in the relative prices of tradable and nontradable goods generating misleading signals to economic ...
Floats pegs and the transmission of fiscal policy
One of the most popular pieces of wisdom in economic policy is the idea that fiscal policy is more effective in a fixed exchange rate regime or a currency union than in a flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper we revisit the theoretical foundations of the conventional wisdom on the relative ...