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Measuring and managing macrofinancial risk and financial stability: a new framework
The vulnerability of a national economy to volatility in the global markets for credit, currencies, commodities, and other assets has become a central concern of policymakers. The responsibility for managing these risks at the national level is often given to the central bank. However, the conventional ...
Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Sixty years ago, Milton Friedman questioned the usefulness of the optimal control approach because of policymakers’ imperfect knowledge of the economy and favored instead a simple rule approach to monetary policy (1947, 1948). These are still live issues, despite the development of powerful techniques ...
A prize worth having: the IMF and price stability
It is always a pleasure to be in Santiago and I am especially pleased to be able to join you at this annual conference which in its nine years has established a high reputation for the quality of the papers and the discussion. This year’s conference is focusing on the subject of inflation targeting. ...
Capital inflows, credit booms, and macroeconomic vulnerability: the cross-country experience
The turbulence in financial markets is Southeast Asia in 1997-98 and the crisis in Mexico in 1994-95 have renewed interest among policymarkers in the issues of capital account liberalization and financial sector reform. In all the East Asian cases and in Mexico, as well as in many other earlier episodes ...
Política monetaria en el límite cero: la experiencia de Chile
Se analizan los efectos de la Facilidad de Liquidez a Plazo (FLAP), ejecutado por el Banco Central de Chile en respuesta a la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Encontramos que el anuncio de esta política reduce significativamente los rendimientos nominales en el horizonte de política de dos años. Estos ...
Desempeño exportador de Chile: el rol de los márgenes intensivos y extensivos
Este artículo presenta una descripción detallada de la evolución de las exportaciones de productos no cupríferos durante el período 1990-2007, y descompone su evolución en términos de sus márgenes intensivo y extensivo. Se documenta una significativa diversificación de las exportaciones en términos ...
La tasa de interés neutral: estimaciones para Chile
En este trabajo utilizamos una batería de métodos para estimar la tasa de interés real neutral (TIRN) para Chile. Los métodos han sido clasificados en tres categorías: métodos derivados de la teoría económica, la TIRN implícita en los papeles financieros y métodos estadísticos utilizando datos ...
La brecha de producto en Chile: medición y evaluación
El presente trabajo estima la brecha del producto y del crecimiento del producto potencial para Chile durante 1986-2007 con tres diferentes metodologías: (i) función de producción, (ii) aproximación por el filtro de Kalman (univariado y multivariado) y (iii) VAR estructural. Las estimaciones de brecha ...
External conditions and growth performance
A central dimension of globalization is the world trend toward larger trade and financial openness, observed in most industrial and developing economies. Openness increases the integration of world goods and capital markets, contributing to potential gains in growth and welfare. However, increased ...
The financial accelerator under learning and the role of monetary policy
The financial crisis that unraveled after the Lehman Brothers collapse affected in different degrees almost all countries around the world independently of the direct exposure of their financial institutions to toxic assets. Most countries saw a sharp drop in demand together with sudden increases in ...