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Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
Has the U.S. wage phillips curve flattened? A semi-structural exploration
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial
crisis of 2007–2009 led to a large increase in the unemployment rate in
most advanced economies. Ten years later, at the time of writing this
paper, the recession has long ended, and the subsequent recoveries
have brought the ...
The supply-side origins of U.S. inflation
In recent years, we have not seen much of a negative correlation
between inflation, the time series plotted in figure 1, and measures of
resource slack, based on real GDP plotted in figure 2. This flattening
of the Phillips curve in many countries across the world has startled
monetary policymakers. ...
How important is the commodity supercycle?
World commodity prices are known to display long cycles. These cycles have a periodicity of 20 to 30 years and are called commodityprice supercycles. Figure 1 displays the time paths of eleven commodity prices deflated by the U.S. consumer price...
Global drivers and macroeconomic volatility in EMEs: a dynamic-factor, general-equilibrium perspective
A common view held by academics as well as policymakers assigns an important role to global factors as drivers of fluctuations in economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs). This follows naturally from the fact that these economies...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...