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Current account deficits: the Australian debate
Large and persistent current account deficits are frequently raised as a cause for concern for a number of reasons. Perhaps the key concern is that countries in this situation could be on a path to insolvency, building up excessive net foreign debt, raising the prospects of default or a sharp reversal ...
Experiences with current account deficits in Southeast Asia
In the 1990s, Southeast Asia experienced very rapid growth associated with large and persistent current account deficits. The episode lasted from 1990 to around 1996, ending with the outbreak of the Asian crisis in 1997–98. Current account deficits peaked at around 10 percent of gross domestic product ...
Sources of uncertainty in conducting monetary policy in Chile
Monetary policy is made in an environment of substantial uncertainty. Consequently, academic researchers have sought to formally demonstrate the implications of uncertainty, as well as the ways in which central banks can manage it. The theoretical literature on uncertainty distinguishes between three ...
Cointegración estacional en la demanda por dinero
Las estimaciones tradicionales de la demanda de dinero presentan problemas característicos: inestabilidad de los parámetros estimados, inconsistencia con los modelos teóricos y baja capacidad predictiva (Goldfeld y Sichel, 1990). Este trabajo explora en qué medida un tratamiento inadecuado de los ...
Under what conditions can inflation targeting be adopted? The experience of emerging markets
Inflation targeting has become an increasingly popular monetary policy strategy, with 21 countries (8 industrial and 13 emerging market economies) targeting inflation and others considering following in their footsteps. Numerous studies of inflation targeting in industrial countries have been conducted, ...
Una revisión del comportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo
Las tasas de ahorro varían ampliamente en el mundo: en promedio, el este de Asia ahorra sobre 30% del ingreso nacional bruto disponible (INBD), mientras que África del sub-Sahara ahorra menos de 15%. Es más, las diferencias regionales han ido aumentando: durante las últimas tres décadas las tasas de ...
Large hoardings of international reserves: are they worth it?
Several Asian economies have accumulated large stocks of international reserves over the last few years. This motivates the question we address in this paper from an empirical point of view. Are these large increases in reserves an efficient crisis-prevention strategy? Or are they second-best to other ...
On current account surpluses and the correction of global imbalances
The United States has run an increasingly large current account deficit over the last few years. J. P. Morgan forecasts that in 2007 the deficit will reach almost one trillion dollars, or 7 percent of GDP. This unprecedented situation has generated concern among analysts and policymakers. Many argue ...
Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research
The conduct of monetary policy in terms of interest rate or other rules has been extensively studied in recent research. This literature gives a central role to forecasts of future inflation and output, and the question of whether monetary policy should be forward- ooking has been subject to discussion ...
El miedo a flotar y la política cambiaria en Chile
Este artículo revisa las políticas de manejo cambiario en Chile, poniendo particular énfasis en el régimen de tipo de cambio flotante implementado en 1999 y los dos episodios de intervención cambiaria posteriores a este. Se presenta evidencia de las favorables condiciones existentes en Chile para ...