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Monetary policy transmission in emerging markets: an application to Chile
A critical question for emerging-market policymakers is how to adjust to monetary policy changes in the center. A core tenet of modern macroeconomic theory is that countries should let their exchange rate float when financial conditions abroad change. This allows the nominal and real exchange rates ...
Inflation globally
The fortunes of the Phillips curve have ebbed and flowed ever
since it was proposed by Phillips (1958). Although its origins are
primarily as an empirical regularity, there is now a vast literature
that provides more formal justification. In recent times, the Great
Moderation and the modern era ...
Global liquidity spillovers to emerging markets and policy responses: an overview
Global liquidity has become a popular concept in academic and policy discussions of recent years. This concept captures overall 'ease of financing' prevalent in the world economy (Caruana 2013) and it is usually mentioned as a possible cause of capital inflows global imbalances excessive credit expansion ...
Debt- and equity-led capital flow episodes
Our earlier work has helped to switch the focus of studies of extreme capital flow movements toward the use of data on gross inflows (mainly driven by foreigners) and outflows (mainly driven by domestics) rather than relying on net flows (the sum of the two) (Forbes and Warnock 2012). The old focus ...
Política monetaria en tiempos complejos
Durante los últimos años la economía chilena ha sufrido shocks importantes que han implicado un gran desafío para la conducción de la política monetaria. El fin del súper ciclo de las materias primas y condiciones financieras internacionales más estrechas junto con una caída importante en los niveles ...
Household financial vulnerability
Household indebtedness in Chile has received considerable attention in recent years because of the financial deepening process underway in the economy. Although various macroeconomic indicators show significant increases in the last decade, there are few tools for evaluating the real vulnerability of ...
The nonpuzzling behavior of median inflation
For decades, textbooks have explained inflation behavior with
Friedman (1968)’s Phillips curve: the inflation rate depends on
expected inflation and the deviation of unemployment from its natural
rate. Yet this theory has always been controversial, and skepticism
has been rampant in the decade ...
Central banking after the crisis
By the mid-2000s both academics and central banks had come to a remarkable consensus on what central banks’ basic strategy should be. However with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 the world of central banking changed forever. The worldwide financial crisis revealed that some of the ...
The relation between monetary policy and financial-stability policy
What is the relation between monetary policy and financialstability policy? How can they be distinguished? How similar or different are they? Should they have the same or different goals? How should they be conducted? Should they be coordinated or conducted separately? Should they be conducted by the ...
A global safe asset for and from emerging market economies
International capital flows are fickle. Short-term debt funding is especially subject to sudden stops. Sudden flight into safe-haven currencies can cause large disruptions and sharp currency movements ultimately leading to a crisis. When markets shift from a risk-on to a risk-off mood cross-country ...