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Capital flow management with multiple instruments
Emerging markets (EMs) are affected by a global financial cycle originating in developed economies (Rey 2013). An increase in risk appetite of developed economies perhaps spurred by easy monetary policy leads to a surge in capital flows to EMs. These foreign capital flows especially foreign portfolio ...
Has the U.S. wage phillips curve flattened? A semi-structural exploration
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial
crisis of 2007–2009 led to a large increase in the unemployment rate in
most advanced economies. Ten years later, at the time of writing this
paper, the recession has long ended, and the subsequent recoveries
have brought the ...
Global drivers and macroeconomic volatility in EMEs: a dynamic-factor, general-equilibrium perspective
A common view held by academics as well as policymakers assigns an important role to global factors as drivers of fluctuations in economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs). This follows naturally from the fact that these economies...
How important is the commodity supercycle?
World commodity prices are known to display long cycles. These cycles have a periodicity of 20 to 30 years and are called commodityprice supercycles. Figure 1 displays the time paths of eleven commodity prices deflated by the U.S. consumer price...
The link between labor cost inflation and price inflation in the Euro Area
To gauge inflationary pressures, policymakers generally pay close
attention to labor cost developments. A key reason has been the widely
held view that labor cost inflation (i.e., wage inflation adjusted for
productivity developments) is one of the main causes of price inflation.
From a theoretical ...
Trend, seasonal, and sectorial inflation in the Euro Area
A central focus of monetary policy is the underlying rate of inflation
that might be expected to prevail over a horizon of one or two years.
Because inflation is estimated from noisy data, the estimation of
this underlying rate of inflation, which we refer to as trend inflation,
requires statistical ...
The supply-side origins of U.S. inflation
In recent years, we have not seen much of a negative correlation
between inflation, the time series plotted in figure 1, and measures of
resource slack, based on real GDP plotted in figure 2. This flattening
of the Phillips curve in many countries across the world has startled
monetary policymakers. ...
The effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging market economies’ sovereign and corporate bond markets
The global environment for emerging market economy (EME) bond markets has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have developed especially in EMEs with low inflation stronger institutions and well defined creditor rights (see Burger and Warnock 2003 2006 ...
Managing sudden stops
Sudden stops are when capital inflows dry up abruptly. The banker’s aphorism—'It’s not speed that kills but the sudden stop'— has been popularly invoked since at least the Mexican crisis in 1994. Awareness then rose with impetus from the Argentine crisis (1995) the Asian crisis (1997) the Russian ...
Liquidity and foreing asset management challenges for Latin America countries
The Global Financial Crisis put to the fore the challenges of managing liquidity and foreign assets at times of heightened volatility. Earlier concerns of some observers regarding the costs of precautionary hoarding notwithstanding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) validated the buffer value of ...